Corporate Bond Analysis

Eyes on the prize... The inflation worries-induced rates tantrum continues, but risk markets are into the early throes of the next leg higher, no doubt looking forward to the $1.9trn US stimulus boost. Though large, and some perhaps would declare it an extravagance, it's become a necessary evil for the economy. The withdrawal symptoms are eventually going to come, but the co [...]

Finger in the air... When is it all going to end? Not yet. Few will pick the top, but that's not hugely important. It's more about limiting the downside. Unfortunately, exiting too early always leaves the temptation to add back if markets continue their rise. And now a Chinese banker has warned that (foreign!) markets are in bubble territory and Asian markets catch a cold. [...]

Markets melt up... We're back - with a good risk market recovery. Even rate bears will soon be put back in their box. Oversold markets are bid-up and we think it will persist through March. None of that 'Beware the Ides of March' stuff. Investors will have licked their wounds, surveyed the landscape and we believe view these markets with an expectation of a comeback - and wi [...]

Fortune will favour the brave... It is of course an understatement to say that markets have had a chaotic end to February. Investors have taken a savaging in the final sessions of February, and it will make for some potentially delicate asset allocation adjustments as we head into March. Most markets' correlations have broken down in a free-for-all which, in our view, smacks [...]